Guided ammunition is the fastest-growing segment at an 18.64% CAGR, while Europe leads regional growth at 16.84% as governments expand production capacity, according to Polaris Market Research.
DOVER, Del., Nov. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The global ammunition market was valued at USD 29.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 93.30 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 13.49% from 2026 to 2034, according to Polaris Market Research. Higher defense budgets, stockpile replenishment, and military modernization are driving demand across artillery, small arms, and guided munitions.
Production Struggles to Keep Pace With Demand
Governments are increasing ammunition procurement as they rebuild military inventories. However, manufacturing capacity remains a major challenge. The U.S. Army was producing approximately 36,000 155 mm artillery shells per month as of March 2026, according to a July 2026 report from the U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General, against its target of 100,000 shells. Source: defence-industry.eu
Manufacturers across the ammunition industry are responding by expanding production capabilities. In September 2026, Rheinmetall announced an artillery ammunition order from an international customer worth a three-digit million-euro sum. This reflects the growing focus on increasing production capacity to meet rising procurement requirements.
Key Factors Driving the Ammunition Market
The global ammunition market is growing due to several factors:
Stockpile Replenishment: Governments are rebuilding ammunition inventories following increased consumption during recent conflicts.
Rising Defense Budgets: Higher military spending across NATO and allied countries is supporting procurement activities.
Military Modernization: Armed forces are upgrading their capabilities, driving demand for guided, precision, and extended-range ammunition.
Domestic Production: Governments are investing in local manufacturing facilities and industrial partnerships to strengthen supply security. This is creating opportunities across the ammunition manufacturing market.
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Ammunition Market Segment and Regional Outlook
Polaris Market Research breaks down the ammunition market by product, component, caliber, guidance mechanism, application, lethality, and region.
By Product: Bullets accounted for 55.84% of the market in 2025, supported by their use in military, law enforcement, and training activities. Aerial bombs are the fastest-growing product segment, with a projected CAGR of 14.82%, as air forces work to rebuild their inventories.
By Caliber: Small-caliber rounds held 36.84% of the market in 2025, forming the backbone of the small arms ammunition market and serving military, law enforcement, and civilian applications. The small caliber ammunition market report covers this segment. Meanwhile, large-caliber ammunition is projected to grow at the fastest CAGR of 16.38%, driven by demand for artillery shells and tank rounds.
By Guidance Mechanism: Non-guided ammunition held 86.74% of the market, reflecting the continued use of conventional ammunition inventories. Guided ammunition is the fastest-growing segment at an 18.64% CAGR, supported by increasing investments in precision-strike capabilities and emerging technologies covered in the loitering munition market.
By Component: Projectiles and warheads accounted for 35.28% of the market in 2025. Fuzes and primers are projected to record the fastest growth, with a CAGR of 14.28%, as ammunition systems become more technically advanced.
By Application: Defense accounted for 84.18% of the market, making the military ammunition market the core of demand. This segment continues to benefit from military spending, stockpile replenishment and homeland security requirements. Civil and commercial applications are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.36%, supported by sport shooting and hunting activities.
By Region: North America accounted for 38.42% of the market in 2025, supported by defense spending and stockpile replenishment efforts. Europe is expected to be the fastest-growing defense ammunition market, with a CAGR of 16.84%, as governments invest in domestic production and replenish military inventories.
Production and Supply Chain Challenges
High production costs, strict safety rules, and limited raw-material supplies can slow production growth. Critical inputs such as antimony, used in primers and hardened lead alloys, also remain exposed to export controls and supply disruptions. These factors create additional pressure on manufacturers, as highlighted in Polaris Market Research’s antimony market analysis.
Recent Developments in the Ammunition Industry
Recent investments and procurement agreements highlight the industry’s focus on increasing production and securing ammunition supplies.
July 2026: NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) awarded Diehl Defence a contract for 155 mm VULCANO guided ammunition.
June 2026: The Australian Government signed an AUD 72 million contract with Rheinmetall NIOA Munitions to establish a 155 mm projectile forging facility in Queensland.
March 2026: Israel’s Ministry of Defense signed a USD 48 million agreement with Elbit Systems for tens of thousands of 155 mm artillery shells.
Analyst Perspective
“Demand isn’t the problem in ammunition; capacity is. Governments have the budgets and the orders, but plants, propellants, and raw materials take years to scale. The suppliers that secure their inputs and add capacity close to their customers will capture the next decade of growth,” said Apurva Agarwal, Senior Analyst, Polaris Market Research.
Key Companies in the Ammunition Market
Major companies operating in the global ammunition market include:
- BAE Systems
- Elbit Systems
- General Dynamics
- KNDS
- Nammo
- Northrop Grumman
- Olin Corporation
- Rheinmetall
- ST Engineering
- Thales Group
About Polaris Market Research
Polaris Market Research is a global market research and consulting company that publishes 5,000+ reports across 20+ industry verticals. Built on a rigorous research methodology that combines primary interviews with industry experts and in-depth secondary research, its reports deliver reliable market sizing, forecasts, competitive analysis, and strategic insights. Polaris helps businesses, investors, and decision-makers understand market dynamics, assess emerging trends, and identify growth opportunities.
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